Herald and Review from Decatur, Illinois • Page 40

FageD4 Decatur, Illinois, Sunday, September 22, 1985 High prices no solution if markets vanish Mike Carr Commentary ing plans would disappear as the markets disappeared. Farming is in much the same situation as our automobile manufactu-ers got themselves in. Unfortunately some want to take the same approach as the auto industry. Those who build our cars were faced with a multitude of problems raising their costs. They could have gone around fixing hundreds of little problems, saving a penny here and a penny there.

Or they could try the one big magic solution to all their problems raise prices! Obviously they tried the simple solution. That opened the markets to more efficient producers, and the life of the U.S. auto producers will never be the same again. Similarly, the farm problem is really a host of problems, each of which demands solution. But some would solve them all with a simple wave of the higher-price baton.

It won't work for farmers any more than it did for the auto bushel here and there. A few extra pennies, multiplied by enough bushels, can equal a sizable amount of money. But if the fanner has little crop to sell, there are no adjustments to make. He cannot adjust his marketing to produce more crop, no matter what the price. Which brings us around, as everything does these days, to farm legislation proposals.

Many farmers want the federal government to stay in the business of controlling production. Some of them say land diversion programs are needed now but should be phased out. A few want even tighter controls over production. Those most vocal in favor of tight mandatory production controls tie the controls to higher guaranteed prices. They say this would make up for the reduced export markets.

But they are talking about guaranteed corn prices that exceed world market prices by $1, $1.50, even $2. Let there be no mistake. At those prices we would not see reduced exports. We would see exports disappear completely. Oh certainly for the first year, maybe two, we would sell some corn and other grains overseas.

The rest of the world doesn't grow enough to get along without us yet. But with prices that high, the rest of the world's producers would be producing all the world can eat very quickly and we would be alone with our grains. So let us imagine where we would be. This year we are producing more than 8.2 billion bushels of corn. If we get lucky in the export market, and if the ethanol and fructose producers have good years, and if the livestock raisers keep feeding their animals, we might use 7.6 billion bushels.

But if we eliminate the export market we would eliminate about 40 percent of that demand, bringing our use down to 4.6 billion bushels. The value of this year's crop is basically tied to the $2.55 price sup port loan level. This makes it difficult to figure the true value if the crop circulated freely in world markets. But about the lowest price guess I have seen is $2.12 per bushel in an open market. A price of $2.12 per bushel for 7.6 billion bushels is slightly more than $16 billion.

But the price would be higher if we only produced 7.6 billion bushels, since at that level supply and demand would be in balance. The $2.12 price is so low because we have so much corn. Multiplying our 8.2 billion bushels times $2,12 is $17.4 billion. If our demand dropped to 4.6 billion bushels, farmers would need a price of $3.78 a bushel to bring in $17.4 billion. At $3.78 a bushel the livestock feeders, poultry raisers and dairy farmers would stop feeding corn, the processors would find other raw materials and even our domestic markets would dwindle.

Obviously whatever flexibility our best farmers have in their market As we rode down the highway at midweek, the weather was perfect for harvest. The machines in the fields were noisy testament to the bright sunshine and soft, dry breezes. "Have you ever seen a more perfect growing season?" a fellow editor asked. Never, I replied. Usually in even the best of years farmers can find times when it is too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, too windy, too calm.

But this year whenever farmers needed a specific type of weather, they got it. It almost seemed to be an answer to the traditional farmer's prayer for an inch of rain every Saturday night between 2 and 3 a.m. But my fellow passenger, even though his area of news expertise does not include the farm, was well aware that the bounty of the fields leads to price-depressing surpluses. What the farmers need, I said, only half joking, is a natural disaster someplace else. Perhaps a total crop failure in the Soviet Union, Brazil and Argentina combined might turn things around.

But what we didn't discuss in this casual conversation is what farmers know well. It is better to have a big crop at low prices than to have high prices and nothing to sell. That is a truism I have heard from farmers for the past 25 years and more. The better farmers know that even when prices are low, if they have enough bushels they may be able to adjust their marketing plans to eke out a few extra pennies per CLARKSON GRAIN BIDS At the close Friday, Sept. 20, 1985 CORN, DECATUR BEANS, DECATUR 2.35V2 NEARBY 5.08V2 2.20V2 NEW CROP 5.06V2 2.27V2 JAN.

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Janes Co. uimin Hem Yak Slack Exchange, nc ttartn Sacuntae mmrar Protection Cmnm' Photos by Steve Cahalan Emmett Sefton (left) has ended six years as president of the Macon County Farm Bureau, to be succeeded by Tom Ritter. Farm Bureau reins change hands W-vrHUjtf Apple's Back to School Rebates For our growing and grown-up customers. says he would like the federal government to phase out its price support programs. "But I don't want to see them pull out all at once," due to current low commodity prices, he says.

He opposes the American Soybean Association's recent proposal that the government pay soybean producers a $50-an-acre subsidy, saying it would be too expensive. Farm Bureau's work in passage and implementation of a new state farmland assessment law. "OUR (COUNTY) organization made sure it was implemented in Macon County," Sefton says of the law, which based property tax valuations on several factors including productivity. "Macon County was one of the first to get it fully implemented." Relations between farmers and the city of Decatur also have improved in the past six years, Sefton says, referring to efforts to reduce soil erosion into Lake Decatur. The county Farm Bureau has been active in lobbying with state and national legislators and has had input into Illinois Farm Bureau policy, Sefton says.

The county organization's major achievements in the last six years also include remodeling its building and installing computers. "Now that we have computers, we can provide services to our members faster," Sefton says. His greatest disappointment was failing to get more members involved in the county organization's activities. County Farm Bureau members now are busy contacting congressmen about the 1985 farm bill. Sefton Machtash'512K $250.00 Rebate $250 back on a Macintosh computer, the perfect business computer to help college students get ready for the real world.

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1 I tbu tijg By STEVE CAHALAN Herald Review Farm Business Writer After six years as Macon County Farm Bureau president, Emmett Sefton of rural Dalton City has been succeeded by a rural Blue Mound man who is 20 years his junior. Tom Ritter, 33, was elected president at the organization's annual reorganizational meeting Sept. 10. I He was treasurer the past year. The new president raises corn and soybeans on 1,600 acres in partnership with Kenneth Gorden of Blue Mound.

He and Gorden also own Tomken Seeds, which sells soybean seed. Ritter, who has been a farmer 10 years, says his main goal will be to get more of the county organization's 4,400 members involved in contacting legislators and running for local governmental offices. "Farmers are fewer in number and farming is not as profitable as it used to be," he says. "We need more people involved in local government to represent the interests of agriculture." HIS PREDECESSOR as county president was not eligible to seek a seventh consecutive term, under a bylaw adopted several years ago. Sefton's tenure was the second-longest by a president of the Macon County organization.

Sefton, who raises corn, soybean and Angus cattle on 800 acres, said he theoretically could run for president again after sitting out a term but will not. The 53-year-old farmer has been in Farm Bureau since about 1961. Earlier this year, he was elected treasurer of the Land of Lincoln Soybean Association, the Illinois affiliate of the American Soybean Association. A Republican, Sefton has been a member of the Macon County Board since 1980 and says he probably will seek re-election next year. Reflecting on his six years as Farm Bureau president, Sefton says he is proud of the county and state NOW! Discount Brokerage Service 4294253 Home Improvement Hi ill IT Week's Week's 9-20 Season Season High Low Close High Low WHEAT Dec 2.98 2.88 2.86V2 3.64 2.79Vi Mar 3.05 2.99Vz 2.91 3.54 2.87 May 3.03 2.92 2.8VA 3.50 2.84 Jul 2.85 2.74 2.72 3.10 2.63 Sep 2.86 2.75V2 2.75Vi 2.86 2.69 CORN Dec 2.23 2.16 2.17 2.95 2.1 4V2 Mar 2.33V4 2.18 2.27 2.97 2.24 May 2.39V4 2.33 2.32 2.91 Va 2.31 Jul 2.43V4 2.28V4 2.34 2.86 2.33 Sep 2.34 2.28 2.28 2.70 2.24V4 Dec 2.31 14 2.25V4 2.51 2.31 Va 2.20V OATS Dec 1.29 1.24 1.24 1.72 1.21 Mar 1.30 1.28 1.28 1.67 1.26 May 1.32 .28 1.29 1.63 1.27 Jul 1.30 1.27 1.28 SOYBEANS Nov 5.19 5.04 5.08 6.68 5.01 Jan 5.29 5.11 5.20 6.79 5.11 Mar 5.41 5.26 5.31 6.51 5.22 May 5.51 5.36 5.41 6.57 5.31 Jul 5.56 5.42 5.47 6.58 5.36 Aug 5.55 5.43 5.45 6.09 5.35 Sep 5.41 5.35 Nov 5.43 5.34 5.36 5.48 5.28 THE U.S.

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